Non-state actors and emerging technology towards 2050 – developments and consequences for military operations

By 2050, violent non-state groups may have an expanded capacity to cause harm using emerging technologies that were previously only accessible to state actors. For the Norwegian Armed Forces, non-state actors such as criminal networks, terrorist organizations, insurgency groups or proxy actors may be particularly relevant, especially with regard to international operations. Such actors can be very innovative, violent, and have fewer reservations about using weapons that most people consider unethical or against established international norms.

As part of a FFI-project on emerging technologies, this report seeks to understand the likely future development of technology, what kind of capabilities violent non-state actors can be expected to have within the period 2030-2050, and the implications of these trends for military operations. The technologies included are: digital technology, artificial intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, additive manufacturing, space technology, biotechnology and human enhancement, and the use of the electromagnetic spectrum. Since non-state actors often use tools that are readily available, it was necessary to develop some claims about the future effects of technology on a number of societal dimensions.

Through workshop activities, structured analyzes and a review of secondary literature, a future image of society was created for both 2030 and 2050, which was then used to analyze the future threat from non-state actors. The main tendencies were clear. Military operations can be far more challenging for Norwegian forces if non-state actors use emerging technologies to become more capable and lethal. More actors will have the ability to affect large parts of society with easily accessible emerging technologies developed primarily by civilian actors.

This will be especially relevant in technology areas where an ethical asymmetry arises between actors who are willing to use ethically questionable technology and others who are skeptical. Norwegian military forces in international operations cannot always count on having technological superiority in meetings with non-state groups. The intent of future analyses is to provide a foundation for taking actions today that can make the country better equipped for the future. Possible technological measures include strengthening electronic warfare and artificial intelligence capabilities, as well as further developing countermeasures against unmanned systems and biological threats. Organizational measures include better technological awareness throughout the Armed Forces, better training opportunities with new technology, and the development of new doctrines.