Security of supply in crisis and war – vulnerabilities, consequences, and measures for the food and fuel supply

Commissioned by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) has examined how civilian and military needs for food and fuel can be secured when supply chains are disrupted in wartime. Norway is highly dependent on imports of food products, key inputs and several types of refined fuel. In addition, ‘just-in-time’ logistics and increasing centralisation have reduced buffer capacity and amplified the potential consequences of global disruptions. This study therefore examines how a war in Norway and its surrounding region may affect national security of supply, with particular emphasis on food and fuel. We identify 30 vulnerability factors across five dimensions and assess the potential consequences of these vulnerabilities within a hypothetical wartime scenario.

The current study highlights four principal findings:

• Norway depends on imported diesel, marine gas oil and aviation fuel, and possesses only one single refinery; in wartime, the gap between peacetime availability and actual needs could become substantial.
• Energy and digital infrastructure are mutually dependent and system-critical, and electrification further increases vulnerability. As shown in Ukraine, power supply quickly becomes a priority target in armed conflict.
• Transport capacity is a major vulnerability due to few and fragile corridors, limited assets in Northern Norway and simultaneity with military movements.
• The food supply is exposed through dependence on imported inputs and labour, which cannot be rapidly replaced.

Our study identifies a fundamental difference in the consequences of disruptions to the food and fuel supply chains. A disruption in the fuel supply chain during wartime leads to immediate and severe consequences, as fuel is indispensable for the operational capability of national and allied forces and directly underpins several other critical societal functions. In contrast, a disruption in the food supply chain unfolds more gradually, and disruptions in the short term will primarily affect the civilian population, in the form of shortages that can lead to changes in the population’s dietary composition.

Based on these findings, we recommend 15 priority measures. These include establishing emergency stockpiles of fuel, food and critical inputs; increasing and diversifying domestic production; strengthening transport infrastructure and backup power capacity; clarifying prioritisation mechanisms between civilian and military needs; and enhancing digital security and international cooperation, particularly with the EU and Nordic partners. These measures must be developed and implemented in close collaboration between government authorities, industry, and other key actors in the food and fuel supply chains.