Personell og kompetanse i Forsvarsmateriell - historisk og fremtidig personellflyt

The Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency was established as an independent agency outside the Norwegian Armed Forces on 1 January 2016. The purpose of the agency is to procure and administer the materiel of the Norwegian Armed Forces. These tasks require both breadth and depth expertise within technical and military disciplines. A great share of this expertise is not readily available outside the Norwegian Armed Forces. In addition, acquiring the expertise can require several years of education, training and work experience. Due to these characteristics, managing the personnel in a long-term and strategic manner is essential. This report is produced as a part of a task given by the Norwegian Defence Material Agency in the autumn of 2015. They wanted an overview of the current and future personnel and competence stock in the agency, as well as the expected turnover. To solve the problem, the historical personnel movements were calculated. In the Norwegian Defence Material Agency there are three major causes of loss of personnel: personnel leaving the defence sector entirely (external turnover), personnel finding a new position outside the agency, but within the defence sector (internal turnover), and personnel retiring from the agency. Annual external turnover has been about five per cent in the Norwegian Defence Material Agency. This is about the same as in the Norwegian Armed Forces as a whole. The internal turnover has historically been about four per cent for officers and one per cent for civilians. The expected need for personnel in the future is calculated by simulating the current stock of personnel with the historical personnel movements. The results indicate that loss of personnel due to retirement will increase. This result is in particular evident for officers with expertise within project management and technical fields. To find the consequence of reduced external turnover, the simulations were repeated with external turnover reduced by 50 per cent. Such a major reduction in external turnover led to a relatively small change in the results (about 14 per cent reduction in the annual number of employees leaving the agency). The simulations were also repeated with a three year hiring freeze. The hiring freeze led to a significant drop in the number of employees (about 240) and led to a change in the competence composition of the agency, where the smallest relative reduction in employees was among those within technical fields of expertise.