Effekter av økonomisk statshåndverk – internasjonal faglitteratur og implikasjoner for norsk sikkerhet

FFI-Report 2024
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Petter Y. Lindgren Kristin Waage
This report aims to contribute with knowledge and recommendations for Norwegian policymakers’ effort to prevent, uncover, and manage economic activity in Norway that threatens national security. Our report poses two research questions: (1) What does the academic literature say about the effects of economic statecraft? (2) (2) What are the implications of this knowledge for the Norwegian government’s efforts to reduce security challenges from economic activity? We establish an analytical framework to understand the effects of economic statecraft. From this analytical framework, we deduce categories of effects, depending on whether the subject perspective is that of the sender or the recipient state, and whether the results are perceived as gross or net for the subject. The framework strengthens our ability to utilize findings and conclusions in the literature on effects of economic statecraft in a national security context. The research on effects of economic statecraft is heavily concentrated on the topic of formal, negative economic sanctions, but also on informal, negative sanctions, positive sanctions, manipulation of access to economic networks, long-term engagement, and transfers of military technology. The research on sanctions and other economic statecraft instruments is primarily concerned with whether the sender state achieves its political objectives. There are also numerous studies on the political, economic, and social gross results for recipient states in the literature. Less attention is devoted to net results. We offer the following six recommendations to the Norwegian government: 1. Norway should use a diverse set of tools to prevent, uncover, and manage economic activity that threatens national security. 2. Norwegian authorities should involve commercial actors, raise awareness about threats and challenges in the private sector and offer advice and directions on managing them. 3. Norwegian authorities should pursue international cooperation. 4. The knowledge about costs and trade-offs of economic statecraft should be improved. 5. Threats and vulnerabilities from economic activity that threatens national security should be assessed in connection to other types of threats and vulnerabilities. 6. The research on effects of economic statecraft in light of the rapid technological develop-ment should be strengthened.

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