Forsvarssektorens investeringer i EBA – kostnadsendringer og forsinkelser i gjennomføringsfasen

The Norwegian defence sector possesses a substantial amount of properties, buildings and facilities (PBF) and allocates a significant part of the investment budget to PBF. In 2022 an estimated 3.5 billion NOK, 5.5 per cent of the total defence budget, is allocated to investments in PBF. The aim of this report is to improve decision-making and acquire knowledge about investments in PBF in the Norwegian defence sector. In 2020, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment published a report about investments in PBF. This report augments the 2020 report, and has five research questions: 1. Have the PBF projects improved over time? 2. Which method is best for reporting delays? 3. How does the PBF projects perform on uncertainty analysis? 4. How does the estimated construction costs decomposed on subelements change in the construction phase? 5. Does delays increase PBF investment costs? The main data source for the analysis is 392 PBF investment projects, which were initiated after 2003 and terminated before August 2020. Our findings are: The cost estimations of the projects have improved over time, however we do not find the same trend for delays (research question 1). The magnitude of delays depends on the chosen method. The different methods have both strengths and weaknesses (2). The cost uncertainties of the projects are underestimated (3). The PBF projects as a portfolio experience little cost overruns, in total 3.5 per cent in the construction phase. Of the subelements of the construction costs, the project management and overhead costs (PMO) experience most cost overruns, with 14.5 per cent (4). Delays correlate with PMO cost overruns. Delays can cause PMO cost overruns, but delays are mainly a symptom of underlying causes that affect both delays and PMO cost overruns. Processes aimed at reducing delays must take into account that some of the causes of delays are external and cannot be influenced by the Norwegian Defence Estates Agency (NDEA), which is responsible for managing PBF projects in the Norwegian defence sector (5). Based on the analysis we have four recommendiations that can be grouped into two areas for improvement. In the area of data management, we recommend a central registration of key indicators from PBF investment projects, and that the NDEA should emphasize the need for correct archive procedures. In time and cost estimation, we recommend that the NDEA emphasizes time scheduling in PBF projects through an internal seminar, and that the NDEA takes into account to a larger degree the inherent cost risk in PBF projects.