From Technology to Strategy and Operations – The Impact of Technology on the Development and Application of Military Force

The interaction between technology and military operations is a project within the Global Trends III program at FFI, studying the impact of technological development on operational concepts. This is a dynamic relationship; since new technology can provide an operational edge, which may serve as a stimulus to develop other technologies to counter the effect – or, failing that, lead to conceptual changes in tactics and operational doctrine to adapt to the technological asymmetry. However, for the purpose of this report, we will concentrate on that part of the interaction, which concerns the initial impact of technology on military affairs, not the other way around. An improved understanding of this mechanism seems particularly appropriate at a time when the development of new technology accelerates, and where a greater ability to adjust to technology-driven change seems to be required. The lack of a comprehensive theory connecting technology and military affairs creates a methodological problem for a study of this kind. The approach selected here has therefore been a study of relevant literature to identify empirical parameters of significance when it comes to establishing such a connection. These parameters are then used to design an analytical framework supporting a more systematic evaluation of the military impact of future technological development. The literary study first explores the historical connection between technology development and the application of military force, at the tactical and operational level as well as the strategic. The significance of the drivers behind the development of new technology as well as its character – paradigmatic, incremental or dramatically changing the ratio between cost and effect – is considered. The limitations of technological superiority relative to other factors contributing to operational efficiency are described, as is the background and impact of the technology-driven increase in the cost of modern military weapon systems and platforms. Finally, in this part, the report deals with the inherent conservatism of military organizations when it comes to the use of new technology – i.e. their preference for using new technology to improve current operational concepts – rather than exploring the technology’s potential for radically improving such concepts. Based on the historical evidence the report then develops the analytical framework for capturing the operational implications of new technologies more systematically. Technology will create battlefield effects, which in their turn affect the operational functions – fire, manoeuvre, protection, etc. – leading to changes in operational behaviour. If these effects and their implied changes of conceptual patterns are sufficiently serious, their implications may be of a strategic order – changing the political and social context of warfare and by extension the utility of war itself. With this framework as a tool, and given the character and scope of emerging military technologies, the project’s next report will analyze what conceptual changes to today’s operational doctrines we must expect over the next decade, and how this will affect the development of the Norwegian armed forces.