Holistic protection – Method for balancing protective measures

FFI-Report 2024
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Jo Hagness Kiran
4 FFI-RAPPORT 24/00179 Summary The current international security climate has underscored the need for societal protection. Critical national functions in particular, including the numerous objects and functions of the Norwegian Armed Forces, require safeguarding against hostile actions. The government is un-likely to afford protection of all functions in the traditional sense, while simultaneously; it cannot afford to abstain from doing so. To ensure that necessary critical functions are adequately protected, one must prioritize and choose what to protect, and especially how to protect it. This report outlines a method for determining the most cost-effective protection for an object or function based on a comprehensive analysis of individual measures and combinations of mea-sures. The method is not an alternative to risk analyses, but a supplemental tool. This report contains an updated version of the method originally documented in FFI report 17/16536 [1]. Holistic protection involves creating comprehensive protection that preserves functionality against external influences from various threats. This can be achieved through various combinations of protective measures. The method presented here allows for finding combinations that provide the best effect for a certain cost. The result can contribute to establishing an acceptable security level according to the Norwegian Security Act (sikkerhetsloven), as well as providing the object owner with insight into the residual risk that will remain after the implementation of measures. The method shares many similarities with other analytical methods, such as risk and vulnerability analyses. The method differs from other approaches by explicitly including the costs of the measures in the assessments. In summary, the method consists of six steps: 1. Mapping: analysis of the object or function to uncover dependencies and values. 2. Threat assessment: preparation of concrete scenarios or vignettes, enabling the assessment of vulnerability and the impact of measures. 3. Vulnerability analysis: analysis to uncover vulnerable functions or points in the object that require measures. 4. Assessment of protective measures: identification and assessment of the effect and cost of possible protective measures. 5. Assessment of combinations of protective measures: evaluation of the effect of all possible combinations of measures identified in step 4. 6. Relationship between protection solutions and costs: compilation of the effects and costs of the combinations. The effect of the measures can be assessed through war games, numerical calculations, or advanced simulations.

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