How to include operational ICT in Norwegian long-term defence planning

Information and communication technology (ICT) is insufficiently represented in long-term defence planning. This is the case both for FFIs method supporting such processes, and the processes themselves. As a result, the possibility of making appropriate investments in ICT for use in military operations and investments in the Armed Forces more generally is negatively affected. The method FFI uses to support the Norwegian Armed Forces’ long term defence planning utilizes a scenario and capability based approach. Scenarios are used to describe security challenges the Armed Forces may face in the future, while capabilities describe the abilities needed to meet them. FFI has used this method many times with good results, but some of the characteristics of ICT makes it difficult to integrate this field directly into the methodology. This includes the difficulty of measuring how ICT contributes to operational effectiveness and of assessing the risks associated with ICT use. We argue that today’s approach, where a small set of ICT capabilities are defined, is not satisfactory for a number of reasons. We have therefore developed an approach where ICT is integrated into the method in a more suitable way. Our starting point is the recognition that ICT enables capabilities to function, by being a component of force structure elements in their delivery of capabilities, and by being an integrator that enables force structure elements to interact and collaborate. This fact should be taken into account in long-term planning. We suggest that this may be done by gathering information and analyzing how force structure elements use ICT, followed by assessments of how this use affects the capacities of the force structure elements. In this report, we present a proof-of-concept method. We have tested this method through two case studies. Our experiences indicate that while the work required to gather and analyze necessary information may be quite extensive, the method works and provides relevant results.