Is Norwegian long term defence planning risk based?

The central and unavoidable challenge to defence planning is how to cope with uncertainty. As a strategic defence planner, the aim is to contribute to a long term defence plan which is a foundation for a viable national defence. Despite our best effort in forecasting, we can be caught by surprise. Limitations in our method represent a risk that may reduce the relevancy of the long term defence plan. Analyzing and taking actions on these potential risks by further developing the current defence analyses into a more robust method, may increase the likelihood of identifying this flexible force structure, a force structure which is better prepared for an uncertain future. FFI´s long term defence planning method is based on a capability analysis that includes both scenario analysis and force structure analysis. The main objective of our method is to identify a flexible and realizable force structure that can handle the nationally defined level of ambition for the defence in a cost efficient manner, both in a short and long term perspective. In addition, the method should take into account external changes and influences, like changes in security challenges and budgets, in the development and state of allied cooperation and in the defined level of ambition. The identified force structure must be adaptable in response to the external changes. Considering risk is currently not an explicit part of this method. Still, risk is taken into account throughout the several steps of our method and the purpose of this article is therefore primarily to evaluate the method with regard to uncertainties and their consequences, how and if these uncertainties are treated and how these uncertainties influence the robustness of our method. The current report was written in connection with a conference that was held by SAS-093 “Risk based planning” in October 20111. The report argues that increased risk awareness throughout the long term planning process is necessary to improve the robustness of our current method. Furthermore, the overall risk when identifying the optimal force structure will be reduced by giving more attention to uncertainties and potential risks in each step of a capability based long term defence planning method.