China’s ambitions in the Arctic as a “near-Arctic” state

In this report, we analyse three central issues regarding China’s interests and ambitions in the Arctic: what the interests and ambitions are, how they may develop towards 2050, and how they could be affected by climate change in the Arctic.

China is interested in the Arctic for several reasons. Great power ambitions are a driver in Chinese policy. This results in an increasingly strong Chinese desire for greater influence on the shaping of Arctic norms and rules, as well as a growing military interest. China possesses the world's largest distant water fishing fleet, which is not currently present in the Arctic. In the future, China’s interest in Arctic fishery resources may increase significantly, which could engender Chinese discontent with the Svalbard Treaty and the Norwegian Fisheries Protection Zone. China is positioning itself as a global green technology and renewable energy giant. They view the Arctic as a region with attractive minerals and suitable conditions for testing such technologies.

We have conducted a scenario analysis of how China may behave and act in the Arctic by 2050, considering the aforementioned areas of interest. The first scenario involves a strengthening of China’s position as a global power and China achieving global hegemony. In the second scenario, the status quo is largely preserved, and China remains amongst the world’s most powerful countries. In the third scenario, China’s economic growth stagnates, weakening their economic and political power internationally. We consider scenario 2 and 3 the likeliest scenarios.

The sum of the above interests suggests that the Arctic will become a more important region for China by 2050. In the Arctic, climate change will result in less sea ice, new fish species, and easier access to ocean areas, attractive resources, and coveted maritime trade routes. Climate change will further strengthen Chinese interest through these consequences.

Our recommendations are organised according to the three scenarios. In scenario 1, China is a global hegemon. Norway must prepare for weakened sovereignty in the Arctic and must therefore pursue an active policy of coalition building with regional allies. This would strengthen Norwegian defence capabilities under adverse conditions.

In scenario 2, it is important for Norway to build robust alliances and partnerships to form a united front against Chinese influence and encourage allied participation in Arctic military exercises. Norway should further prepare for Chinese challenges of the Fishery Protection Zone and monitor developments in Sino-Russian relations. Lastly, Norway must prepare for the arrival of the Chinese distant water fishing fleet, which may operate outside of legal frameworks.

In scenario 3, China will be weakened, which results in a lower ability to realise its Arctic ambitions. Norway must set clear sovereign boundaries diplomatically, and but remain prepared for Chinese challenges to the Norwegian interpretation of the Svalbard Treaty in a bid to secure favourable terms for the distant water fishing fleet. If such terms are not obtained, Norway must prepare for increased Chinese illicit fishing in the Arctic. Russia is likely to consolidate its power over the Northern Sea Route, which Norway must be prepared to address.