Consequences of climate change and climate adaptions for the Norwegian defence towards 2040 – a report to the Defence Commission.

In «Climate Change & Security Impact Assessment» from 2022 NATO states that “climate change is the overarching challenge of our time”. The world is experiencing the primary and secondary effects of climate change. The scope, scale and intensity of climate change effects are projected to increase and are believed to be ramping up considerably after 2040. Climate change is a threat multiplier that intensifies existing challenges and will entail significant security challenges for the Armed Forces. This report discusses the most central aspects where climate change can affect the Armed Forces' operations and the defence policy over the next 20 years. Climate change can amplify unpredictability and operational uncertainty for the Armed Forces. The ongoing reduction of the Arctic sea ice extent will increase access and resource availability and thereby amplify commercial and military activity in the Arctic. The increase in military presence in selected Arctic regions can escalate great power rivalry. Furthermore, climate change can affect NATO's military bases, damage critical infrastructure, and cause instability in the energy supply. The Norwegian government's aim as of 2022 is to reduce Norway's emissions by 55 % before 2030, which will entail a significant and rapid restructuring of the society. The ongoing and expected extensive electrification and digitization of society are examples of this restructuring. The Norwegian Ministry of Defence states that the defence sector must contribute to the collective effort to reduce Norway’s climate change emissions. It is important to minimize risks of climate-related vulnerabilities for the defence sector caused by the ongoing societal restructuring. As an example, the challenges of reliability and resilience in the energy system can lead to changes in the Armed Forces' security of supply. Climate awareness will contribute to building the armed forces’ reputation and potentially improve recruitment. FFI recommends that the ambitions set forth in the defence sector's climate- and environment strategy is followed through by monitoring and measuring the impact of suggested and implemented adaptations to ensure long-term performance. In addition to climate mitigation, the Armed Forces needs to implement climate adaptations. Therefore, this report highlights selected land-, sea-, and air operational issues that may arise due to climate change. Accordingly, FFI recommends that new and/or revised defence structures and platforms are evaluated in light of updated climate projections in the long-term defence planning and procurement processes. Factors to be considered regarding these processes are (not exclusively) whether future operation concepts provide equal or improved defence capabilities; how defence structures and platforms should include climate adaptation; how the society's transition to renewable solutions will affect defence structures; and how the Armed Forces can contribute to reducing the climate- and environmental footprints. FFI recommends that the requirements for climate adaptation and reduced climate footprint are further emphasized in the defence sector's procurement system (PRINSIX) and that new materiel to be acquired include requirements set for climate and environmental footprint, climate adaptation, circular economy, and robust future energy solutions. FFI emphasizes the importance of climate adaptations to be taken into account in operational concepts and military platforms in order to maintain the defence capability in the long term. FFI recommends considering whether climate adaptation and reducing the sector's climate and environmental footprint can be included as a tenth point in the Armed Forces’ tasks. Further, FFI recommends that the defence sector invests in extensive knowledge development, applied research and development (R&D) and innovation. Such an investment should also occur in close cooperation between the defence sector, civilian R&D and research environments. International cooperation, mainly through NATO Science Technology Organization (STO) and allied defence cooperation, is considered a prerequisite for success in establishing robust implementable solutions, maintaining future defence capabilities, and reducing emissions of climate gases.