Lavintensivt hybridangrep på Norge i en fremtidig konflikt

Hybrid warfare is the term now used to describe the combination of regular and irregular means within the framework of the same armed conflict, which – given the presence of some kind of irregular means or tactics in all conflicts – makes all wars hybrid by definition. This report therefore narrows the meaning of the term down to those conflicts or stages in conflicts where irregular means dominate over conventional. Since the end of the Cold War, Norwegian defence planning has been based on a scenario featuring a limited but high intensity, conventional military attack from another state. Unconventional or irregular operations have been considered only as a supporting activity in the context of such an attack. Guerrilla style operations, bombings, assassinations, sabotage and the like have dominated first of all asymmetric wars and counter-insurgencies fought mainly in the rural parts of poor countries outside Europe. This report studies the possibility of hybrid warfare as a prelude to, or as an integrated part of, a future inter-state and low-intensity conflict in Europe. The reason for this is the increasing frequency of both kinetic and non-kinetic irregular means in armed conflicts everywhere, relative to conventional military force. This, in its turn, can be traced back to a number of political, social, economic and technological trends. It must therefore be assumed that such means will be an important part of any future conflict between Norway and a foreign power. Particularly the development of information and communication technology over the past 20 years has created entirely new domains and opportunities for non-kinetic hybrid warfare. Global news coverage and dissemination, the possibility of instant group coordination through social media, the transfer of power to non-state actors, the proliferation of sensitive military technology, the adaption of commercial technology to military purposes – it all contributes to the opportunity of states to conduct war by proxy or non-attributable warfare as a low-risk, low-cost alternative to high-end war. Particular importance must be attached to influence operations and the battle of the narrative – the struggle to shape not only the perception of what is actually happening, but also to claim political legitimacy and the moral high ground in such conflicts. The report deals with the political and other preconditions for waging as well as resisting a hybrid campaign, how these preconditions are likely to develop in the future and how they empower authoritarian regimes and liberal democracies differently. To further illustrate how a foreign power could apply this kind of warfare in a conflict specifically targeting Norway, three scenarios have been developed, demonstrating various means and levels of ambition with regard to what the power in question might try to achieve. However, these scenarios have been classified as RESTRICTED and consequently are not included in the report. Still, the report may be read as a generic description of the likely character, role and importance of the irregular element of a future European conflict, be it in a low-intensity war or as the pre-cursor to a major conventional campaign.