Metode for utvikling av scenarioer til spill og øvelser

FFI-Report 2013
This publication is only available in Norwegian

About the publication

Report number

2013/00219

ISBN

9788246422558

Format

PDF-document

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1.2 MB

Language

Norwegian

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Stein Malerud Håvard Fridheim
Scenarios are frequently in use to support analysis, planning, games and exercises, both for military and civilian purposes, like protection of the society. Thus, it is important for FFI to have an expertise to develop relevant scenarios of high quality for different purposes. However, there is to our knowledge, no systematic and documented method for scenario development at the institute. The aim of this report is to describe a method for developing fit-for-purpose scenarios. For a scenario to be regarded as useful it is it is essential that the users finds it relevant with respect to its purpose and that it has high credibility. Credibility is achieved by involvement of stakeholders, and by applying a traceable and coherent process that links the overall scenario objectives to the actual content of the scenario. The starting point of the scenario development process is problem structuring to help identify relevant problems and challenges to be covered by the scenario. The core of the method is the factor-based approach which is initiated by brainstorming of factors that are relevant with respect to the purpose of the scenario. The next step is to identify the most influential factors. These driving factors can take different state values, and different combinations of these values are used to create the scenarios. In order to test and validate the scenario development process, we have performed three different case studies. These studies show that the method is well suited for development of scenarios for games and exercises. However, it is our opinion that the method is more general, and thus, applicable for development of for instance, planning scenarios and scenarios covering large accidents and natural disasters.

About the publication

Report number

2013/00219

ISBN

9788246422558

Format

PDF-document

Size

1.2 MB

Language

Norwegian

Download publication

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