Optimisation of flare and chaff programs - an analytical approach

A statistical model is presented that expresses the mission survival probability of an aircraft as a function of various input parameters such as missile attack rate, false alarm rate, missile detection probability and mission duration. Use of the model enables a dynamic optimisation for efficient use of expendable countermeasures. It also enables optimisation of equipment procurement by quantifying the effect of improving the performance of specific components. The model also results in a method for dynamically optimising the key parameters of a missile approach warning system during the mission, ideally leading to a significant increase in the aircraft protection.