Rekruttering fra førstegangstjeneste -en statistisk analyse

The compulsory military service is essential for recruitment to the Norwegian Armed Forces. Universal conscription gives the Armed Forces the possibility to select among all men and women of a certain age for the compulsory military service. In order to make the most of this unique basis for potential recruitment, it is crucial that the Armed Forces understand which soldiers they recruit to a further military career. In this report we apply statistical methods to study characteristics and competencies among those conscripts who are recruited from the compulsory military service to a further military career. We distinguish between enlisted soldiers and (commissioned or non-commissioned) officers, while apprentices are not included in the analysis. We study the relationship between recruitment and a range of variables that the Armed Forces collect as part of the selection process for the basic military service. These include demographical variables, motivation and interests, physical condition, educational background and mental ability. In addition, we use information from the compulsory military service, such as type and quality of service. The relationship studies are statistical and not causal. The analysis shows that the enlisted soldiers are more motivated for international operations, have a higher mental ability score and are considered to have a better quality of service compared to those who do not continue in the Armed Forces after the compulsory military service. The geographical background is also somewhat different, while there are only minor gender differences. For some variables we cannot establish any important relationships. When we study differences between enlisted soldiers and officers, we observe that the officers have better physical endurance, better school grades and a higher mental ability score. There are also some geographical and gender differences. Many officers have indicated an interest in military education, but this applies to the enlisted soldiers as well. The analysis includes all conscripts born between 1992 and 1996. This means that it covers only the period prior to universal conscription and the current employment and educational reforms in the Armed Forces. As a consequence, the results are not part of an evaluation of any of these reforms, but contribute to a better understanding of the characteristics of those who are recruited. This is essential in order to be able to assess the possible consequences of current and possible future reforms. We have based the analysis on a comprehensive data set that covers most of the criteria used by the Armed Forces in the selection for the compulsory military service. However, there are many non-included factors that may potentially influence the recruitment decision.