Societal security towards 2030 - trends

What does the future hold for the world and Norway towards 2030? And how may the development affect our societal security? This report seeks to answer these pertinent questions on the basis of a literature review of expected developments within security policy, demography, economy, climate and technology. Thereafter, characteristic benefits and challenges for societal security by use of examples are pinpointed. In the societal dimension, there is a global transition of power to non-state actors and emerging power states. The means of conflict have morphed into more “hybrid” forms than traditional state war, and there is a possibility that the influence of alliances like NATO will wane. The world population increases, becomes older and more urbanised, particularly in the West. Social tensions can further decrease the influence of alliances. Financial growth is also expected, but slower and with disparities between states. Environmentally, demand for resources such as energy, food and water is expected to increase. A swifter transition than expected to a “green economy” cannot be ruled out. Consequences of climate change are expected for several decades to come. Even though the direct consequences for Norway are challenging to determine, more humid and warmer conditions are expected. Furthermore, consequences in other countries could also affect Norway, with issues such as climate refugees and more competition for import goods. Technology is a central driving force in society. The following technological megatrends have been reviewed: Communication technology (5G), information technology and cloud computing, artificial intelligence and big data, the Internet of Things, robotics and autonomous systems, space technology and space-based services, quantum technologies and synthetic biology. Common for these technologies is that they pose both benefits and challenges for societal security. Digital transformation, electrification and the development of the so-called “smart society” will continue to shape our society. This study also outlines some possible discontinuities, or alternative futures, that could significantly affect societal security. The alternatives are “global stagnation and insurrection”, “rapid transition to green economy”, and “deep digital transformation in society”. These are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive but can be used as tools to describe future planning options. Lastly, critical infrastructures are continually becoming more complex and interconnected. This requires novel approaches to societal security and enhanced ability to plan across sectors. The future endeavours for societal security therefore need to be comprehensive and based on scientific knowledge in the times to come.