Trends Shaping the Norwegian Society towards 2030 – Challenges for the Police, the Police Security Service and the Prosecuting Authority

The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Defence to analyse threats to national security towards 2030, to support longterm planning for the Police, the Police Security Service and the Prosecuting Authority. The threats have been analysed on the basis of a literature review of expected developments within security policy, demography, economy, climate and technology, along with expert assessments of the implications for the police and prosecuting services with a special focus on preparedness and national security. The future challenges for the police and prosecuting services are complex, transboundary and cross-sectoral. This work has identified four important drivers of change that have an impact on future threats. The first relates to future conflicts, in particular the great power rivalry between USA, China and Russia. The second relates to socio-economic changes both nationally and internationally, especially long-term consequences from the Covid-19 pandemic. The third relates to technological developments, in particular emerging and disruptive technologies. Technology is an important driver of change for almost all types of crimes and threats to national security. The last driver of change relates to societal changes because of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. These four drivers of change are affected by substantial uncertainty. This is especially the case for technological developments because of emerging and disruptive technologies’ potential for creating so-called technological discontinuities, i.e. unanticipated or surprising shifts in trends. The uncertainty related to the drivers of change will not only impact the future threats, but also how the police services should meet the challenges. It is paramount that the police and prosecuting services are able to meet the future challenges in order to sustain trust in society. If this is not the case, our society could become more vulnerable to crimes, terrorism or foreign influence and interference. With the foreseen strain on public finances, the police and prosecuting services will have to prioritise their efforts and resources. In questions related to national security and preparedness, the following topics require consideration: (i) the blurring of lines between state security and societal security due to hybrid threats, (ii) the opportunities and challenges posed by emerging and disruptive technologies, (iii) complexity as a challenge to our society, and (iv) conspiracy theories as a democratic problem. For the future, the police services’ main strategy should still be prevention. This will, however, require agreement on the objectives to be achieved, acceptance for prioritisations, and clarification of roles and responsibilities. In addition, multidisciplinary collaboration across sectors, effective tools for law enforcement and policing, and a fit-for-purpose legal basis without compromising human rights or the state’s governing principles under the rule of law are needed.