Scenario classes for force structure planning – a revision of FFI’s scenario portfolio

Scenarios are descriptions of possible future situations. Scenarios therefore play a key role as a basis for establishing capability requirements for the analysis of military systems and structures. This report reviews and updates FFI’s existing scenario portfolio. FFI's current scenario portfolio for defence structure analyzes dates from 2006. The portfolio consists of a set of generic scenario classes, which together constitutes a typological classification of the entire range of security political and military challenges to Norway. The complete set of generic scenario classes forms the basis for the development of specific and concrete analysis scenarios. The scenario portfolio is revised at regular intervals. It was previously revised in 2014 and in 2018. The main purpose of revisions is to identify and characterize features of Norway’s security environment that may have consequences for the Armed Forces in the future, and to include those features in an updated scenario portfolio. This study places particular emphasis on current developments, in particular trends pertaining to the employment of military and nonmilitary instruments of statecraft, to the weakening of barriers between internal and external security, and to the tendency of international conflicts to be played out in the gray zone between war and peace. The definition of scenario classes utilizes morphological analysis. The analysis identifies four parameters: actor, goal, method and means. Each parameter is defined through a number of values. The analysis reduces the number of possible solutions from 324 to 32, which is eventually synthesized into 9 scenario classes: strategic attack, limited attack, unconventional warfare, coercive diplomacy, military positioning, terrorist attack, influence operations, economic use of force and economic positioning. With the inclusion of the new scenario classes “unconventional warfare” and “military positioning”, this analysis represents a greater differentiation of challenges in the military domain than the current scenario portfolio. Furthermore, the scenario classes “influence operations”, “economic use of force” and “economic positioning” additionally represent an extension of the scenario portfolio to subject areas that are not military per se, but where relevant methods and means can emerge as security political challenges.