Simulation-supported wargaming for assessing force structures – methodology and best practices

When developing and assessing future force structures, wargaming is a key activity for gaining deeper insight and better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the force structures. Today, computer-based simulation systems let us create synthetic environments that to a high degree replicate the physical properties of the real world. Furthermore, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and behaviour modelling have given us more realistic computer-generated forces that can execute battle drills and lower-level tactics with a high degree of realism. Wargames can benefit from these advances. However, at the higher levels of the chain of command, AI cannot yet match human decision-makers, and thus, planning and conducting simulated operations in wargames requires the participation of human officers. For more than a decade, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt – FFI) has supported the Norwegian Army with conducting wargames for capability planning, with varying degrees of computer-based support. Throughout this period, the wargames have evolved from what can be described as computer-assisted wargames towards more realistic simulation-supported wargames. Moreover, to get a closer understanding of the deterrent effect of the force structures, which may not be observable during the actual gameplay, our emphasis has also shifted towards replicating the planning process more properly, and especially towards monitoring the planning process of the opposing force. For example, it has been important to examine to what extent specific structure elements discourage the opposing force from taking certain actions. First in this report, we briefly describe the background for this work. Secondly, we present an introduction to wargaming in general, including definitions, key elements, types, application areas, and wargaming’s relation to modelling and simulation and experimentation. We then describe our evolved methodology for simulation-supported wargaming, which includes a preparation phase; an execution phase, including a joint operational planning process; and an analysis phase. We also discuss what type of data and results we are able to extract from the wargaming sessions, the validity and credibility of wargames, and simulation systems for supporting wargames. Finally, we present a set of what we have found to be best practices for how to conduct successful simulation-supported wargames.