Teknologiske og samfunnsmessige utviklingstrekk av betydning for nasjonale sikkerhetsinteresser i et 2030-perspektiv

FFI-Report 2023
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Karina Barnholt Klepper Ole Ingar Bentstuen Arild Bergh Torgeir Broen Torbjørn Kveberg Petter Y. Lindgren Eskil Grendahl Sivertsen Øyvind Sjøvik Knut Svenes Kristin Waage Ronny Windvik
The Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) has been commissioned by the National Security Authority (NSM) to shed light on technological and societal developments of particular importance to national security. This will contribute to an in-depth knowledge base for the preparation of the chief NSM's Advise on National security (SFR) for 2025-2028. The report addresses expected developments in technology, climate and energy security and hybrid interference activities in a 2030 perspective and the significance for national security interests. The development of 5G is of great importance for big data, artificial intelligence and electronic communication services (ECOM). 5G will form the basis for the majority of communication services. It is highly important for our national security interests until 2030. 5G will have different and new vulnerabilities compared to previous generations. NATO expects that quantum technology products will be operationally useful in 5-15 years. This entails major changes for military and civilian systems within autonomy, sensors for intelligence, surveillance and targeting, communication/crypto and data processing (quantum computers). The central capabilities and capacities of the armed forces and civil society must adapt to the development. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges society faces. Variable energy sources, extreme weather, automation, transnational dependencies and increases in cyber incidents and cascading failures increase the complexity of the energy system. This may result in increased vulnerability, reduced reliability and resilience in the system and more frequent, long-lasting power outages and the loss of critical services over large areas. Society is increasingly dependent on space-based services. Ever better services are developed within communication, observation and intelligence as a result of space activities. Military loss of satellite communications can lead to the degradation of command and control and the distribution of intelligence information. Civil loss can lead to the loss of many critical services. Digitization of society increases the attack surface for computer crime and offensive cyber operations. Digital security must therefore include norm and sanction work, increased focus on personnel security, continuous development of machine learning techniques for detection and communication around own cyber capabilities. Digitization, the internet and social media gives new opportunities and greater effect to influence operations with low risk. Prevention and defence against such operations require a good and coordinated situational understanding and security policy in all sectors, knowledge of the threats, the means, actors and their intentions, and rapid coordination of response measures. China and Russia can exercise economic statecraft against Norway. Until 2030, economic instruments may have great potential to threaten Norwegian security. Technological developments make it more difficult to identify which companies, suppliers and data that can be used for purposes that may threaten Norway's national security interests.

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