Trends related to ICT

Information and communications technology (ICT) is becoming more and more important in support of military operations, and the future development of ICT will affect military operations. To be able to understand future military operations, we therefore have to understand the future development of ICT. This report summarizes an analysis of both commercial and governmental studies of relevant ICT trend reports. The report identifies the common features from the trend reports and tries to identify how the Norwegian Armed Forces should respond to these trends in the future. The selection of literature covers both literature from selected allied nations and from the major commercial trend analysis companies. The conclusion of this report is that the development in individual ICT technologies now plays a smaller role than previously. There is a clear trend that application of technology should be governed by the interaction between technology and organization instead of just applying new technology to existing processes and business. Assembling and applying different technologies in new ways is what leads to progress. Thereby lies the possibility that new ways to combine both existing and emerging technologies can both present new opportunities and new threats for the armed forces. The commercial trend studies are very clear that it is increasingly important to control development of how technology is applied in an organization. Organizations must make strategic choices based on a space of opportunity given by current and future technological development as well as societal development in general. Technology that supports the chosen strategy must be developed or procured subsequently. In order to make the right strategic choises, senior personnel need to understand technology trends. This is transferable to a military context, which is also identified in the trend studies from NATO and allied nations. Conflicts in the future will change character. The Armed Forces must understand both the nature of future conflicts and what opportunities technology can provide to solve tomorrow's challenges. The Armed Forces must choose strategic approaches to future conflicts, then develop and procure ICT that supports the chosen strategic approaches.