Utviklingen av droner og EUs søken etter strategisk autonomi

The EU’s role as a security actor is gaining increased political attention. The British decision to leave the EU and a waning US will to lead in international affairs have contributed significantly to a changing transatlantic security community. Enhanced strategic autonomy is now being forced upon the Europeans. The US is pivoting towards China. Obviously, such autonomy is resting upon a will among the European NATO- and EU-allies to address important capability shortfalls in European defence. The present report aims to investigate the main drivers behind the development of drones in European defence and how such a development might enhance strategic autonomy. In an EU-context drones are usually depicted as Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS). The report emphasises that the introduction of RPAS in European defence is just one out of several means that needs to be addressed so as to mitigate existing capability shortfalls. The report further identifies two drivers behind the development of RPAS in European defence: the capability promoting drivers and the technology promoting drivers. To be able to identify such drivers and to say something more about which of them that has the greatest impact on the development of RPAS in Europe, will provide us with a much better understanding of the development of an EU strategic autonomy. Consequently, this report operationalises the autonomy concept, which so far has been lacking in the research debate on European security and defence. This is also the report’s main contribution to the research debate. The report finds that it is the capability promoting force that has the most significant impact on the development of European RPAS. This force emphasises the need for the Europeans to address important capability shortfalls and European security needs. The technology promoting force is on the other hand more oriented towards the US’ concern as regards the global proliferation of modern technology. Consequently, the Americans aim to further develop their technology base so as to maintain their global power projection capability. The report underlines the consequences that such a capability promoting force will have on EU’s strategic autonomy and the implications of the defence technology gap between the US and its European allies. A European RPAS-capability will not to any significant extent close the technology gap between the US and Europe. At the same time the report underlines the close links between security policy strategies and innovation strategies in connection with the development of new technologies. These developments are also expressed in the three dimensions of a European RPAScapability: the strategic, the technological and the ethical dimension. The strategic dimension emphasises European security needs as expressed in the enhanced need for European RPAS for maritime surveillance and border security. The new European security order will also change the demand for European RPAS, especially the technological dimension. New forms for European defence cooperation as well as enhanced demand for autonomous drones are likely developments in European defence cooperation. This will also affect the ethical dimension since armed autonomous systems will change the view of the EU as a security actor.