Velger Forsvaret de rette ungdommene - analyse av seleksjon, gjennomføring og frafall i førstegangstjeneste 2010-2014

One of the main tasks of the FFI-project Research on Annual Age Cohorts is to contribute to the recruitment of both men and women to the Norwegian Armed Forces. One activity is to analyze data from the selection process to the compulsory military service. Since 2010 the selection process for the military service is divided into two parts. The first part, sesjon del 1, is an online form that all 17-year olds have to complete. A selection of candidates then have to attend the second part, sesjon del 2, which involves medical and other tests and an interview with an officer. It is compulsory for both men and women to take part in the selection process, but up until 2015 only men have been subject to a conscription duty. In this report we analyze the selection to the military service, as well as the drop-out before and during the military service. The analysis period is the first four years with a two-part selection process and compulsory participation from women. There has been a big increase in female participation at sesjon del 2 during the period. There has also been a moderate increase in the share of women who voluntarily conscribe to the military service, but the drop-out between sesjon del 2 and the start of the military service is significant. Moreover, an important share of the women who reported that they were not interested in military service at sesjon del 1, but who later agreed to conscription at sesjon del 2, used their right to withdraw from the service. As a consequence there has been only a moderate increase in the share of women in the military service. 12 percent of those who completed a military service beginning in 2013 are women. For the annual age cohort 1994, there is a 16 percent share of women. The drop-out during the one-year basic military service is 15 percent for men and women alike. The drop-out rate is higher for men who at sesjon del 1 stated that they were not interested in a military service. Women who express a lack of interest for the military service tend to drop out before they start their service. In this report, we analyze possible correlations between the drop-out rate and various data from the selection process for men and women born in 1994. The most distinct result is a strong connection between motivation and drop-out. From 2015, women born 1997 or later are subject to a conscription duty on the same terms as men. Such a fundamental change may have implications for the motivation for the military service, but there is a large uncertainty as to what effect this will have on the share of women in the Norwegian Armed Forces.