Beregning av dødelighet fra luftsjokk

Methods for estimating the lethal effects of air blast have been investigated to improve or verify the calculation models in the quantitative risk analysis tool AMRISK. The model in AMRISK for predicting lethality from air blast to people in free-field is a simplified version of models developed by Bowen et al. For direct effects the AMRISK model is very conservative for small ammunition quantities in contrast to Bowen’s original model. Although some parts of the model basis may be questionable, Bowen’s extensively used model is the best model available. For indirect effects in free-field the recommended model is based upon Bowen’s model for predicting the velocity of persons translated by blast waves, with a diffraction load added. In free-field damage from direct and indirect effects should be considered as independent events. For the lethality to people in vehicles new and evidently better models are not available. The existing model for people in buildings can probably be improved, but so far a new model is not at hand.