FFIs støtte til forsvarssjefens Forsvarsstudie 2007

This report contains an overview of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment’s (FFI) contribution to the Chief of Defence’s Defence Study 2007 (DS 07). The end product of DS 07 is the recommendation of the Chief of Defence as to the development of the Norwegian Armed Forces in a 20-year time frame. The Study is one of the main contributions to the Government in its effort to produce a white paper which is to be presented to the Parliament in the spring of 2008. DS 07 was established as a self-contained project within the Ministry of Defence with heavy participation from the ministry as well as the Defence Forces. At FFI a number of projects have had support for DS 07 as their main task, especially with respect to the projects SIMFOR, STRATKOST and KOSTER. Other projects – from all divisions of FFI – have also contributed significantly to the Study, coordinated through SIMFOR. The Director General of FFI has played a central role in DS 07, being part of the four-person steering committee for the Study. A main contribution from FFI has been the development of the scenarios used in DS 07. Based on an analysis of the future security environment, a number of scenarios were defined and scrutinised through table-top war gaming in order to establish the capability requirements for the future Armed Forces. This formed the basis for the evaluation of various alternative defence structures, including a gap analysis of the final, recommended force structure. An important part of this process was the development and application of a methodology for long term defence planning, a methodology that is comprehensive, structured, consistently applied and provides an audit trail. FFI has also contributed to the evaluation of the analysis of conscription, education at all levels, recruitment and selection of personnel. Scientists from FFI have been responsible for modelling and simulation of processes and organizations, assessing the consequences and cost implications of changes and modifications to these. The cost analysis for DS 07 has mainly been carried out at FFI, using the KOSTMOD model. During the study a total of 7 cost simulation runs were performed on complete defence structure alternatives, forming a critical basis for the prioritizations and trade-offs the Study needed to make. FFI has also contributed to other activities of DS 07 as needs arose, usually on short notice and with high priority. Examples are support to the evaluation of possible bi- and multilateral defence cooperation, the analysis of emerging technologies and assessing the consequences and requirements for network enabled capabilities.