Fra taktisk elite til strategisk tilrettelegger – hvordan Forsvarets spesialstyrker kan møte fremtidens utfordringer

The Norwegian special operations forces were established during World War II to conduct unconventional warfare in German-occupied Norway. In this report we consider the development of Norwegian special operations forces as a result of the rise of various military and security challenges through the post-WWII period. We identify four significant phases – paradigms – in this development. The study investigates which security and military challenges Norway’s special operations forces will likely confront over the medium term (10–15 years). The analysis defines a solution space consisting of two parameters – actors and methods – and identifies a continuum that spans from non-state actors that apply irregular methods (terrorism) to state actors that apply either irregular methods (hybrid warfare) or regular military methods (strategic attack). Besides, the force will also contribute with units and personnel to allied and multinational operations abroad. The report analyses trends in modus operandi of terror groups, the proliferation of hybrid methods, and regular warfare, i.e. a strategic attack scenario. The report also explores alternative postures for Norwegian special operations forces in terms of counterterrorism, counter hybrid warfare, national defense, and allied and multinational operations. The report also ascertains that the level of terrorism, both quantitatively and qualitatively, will remain stable over the medium term, but a possible growth in state sponsored terrorism may change that picture. Counterterrorism as a military mission is justified in order to cover gaps in police capabilities. However, this mission may gradually be phased out of the special operations forces’ portfolio with the growth in police capabilities. Hybrid warfare is a new concept, but its methods and tools are well known. However, hybrid methods challenge the division of labor between the security institutions of western societies. Thus, the special operations forces might be key players in countering hybrid threats, but command and control must remain a civil responsibility. A strategic attack entails massive use of military force in order to establish control over parts of Norwegian territory. In this scenario, the special operations forces will mainly do special reconnaissance, direct action and military assistance to conventional military units. Future military and security development will likely pull Norway’s special operations forces towards a more strategic role in terms of national defense and support to foreign policy. The report concludes that those changes may constitute a new paradigm – that of a strategic facilitator.