Malicious acts that can harm the Norwegian power system – a scenario-based approach

Reliable power supply is of vital importance for economic growth, the welfare of the population and national security. Norway’s position as an energy nation together with our geographical proximity to Russia makes Norway vulnerable to pressure and attacks. As a consequence of the clean energy transition, the Norwegian power system will play an increasingly important role going forward; this happens in a time with great power rivalry and war in Europe.

The purpose of this work has been to shed light on malicious acts that can harm the Norwegian power supply and that Norway needs to prepare for. This has been done through a scenario-based approach. The range of outcomes for which future malicious acts could harm the Norwegian power system is large and fraught with great uncertainty.

Our findings show that the Norwegian power supply preparedness should take into account the following categories of malicious acts: (i) cyber-crimes, (ii) extremism from politically motivated non-state actors, (iii) foreign state actors’ hybrid interference activities in the form of priming, covert coercion, sabotage or coercive diplomacy, and (iv) armed attacks.

These categories can be used to develop specific scenarios for malicious acts that the Norwegian power supply preparedness must include. There is also significant uncertainty related to the transition towards the low-emission society that is necessary to meet Norway’s climate commitments. This applies to both the extent and pace of the energy transition and to the degree to which trust in society is maintained.

In our work, we describe this uncertainty in the form of four futures: ‘On Familiar Paths’, ‘The Green Leap’, ‘Worlds Apart’ and ‘Falling Behind’. Major changes will be necessary for Norway to become a low-carbon society. Whether an ex-tensive energy transition will lead our society in the direction of ‘The Green Leap’ or in the direction of ‘Worlds Apart’ will depend, among other things, on the extent to which Norway is able to undertake such major societal changes while still maintaining a high level of trust in society.

Limited energy transition combined with weakened trust in society (‘Falling Behind’) appears as the most dangerous direction of development because increased political polarization and increased conflict in society can make Norway more vulnerable to malicious acts. In such a con-text, we must consider that consequences of climate change can act as a threat multiplier.

The further development of the Norwegian power supply preparedness must take into account both the uncertainty and instability in the security policy situation and the energy transition towards a low-carbon society. Strategies that work well across a wide range of possible outcomes should be chosen to meet future challenges. In such a perspective, the Norwegian power supply preparedness should include realistic worst-case scenarios in the entire conflict spectrum. Such worst-case scenarios must also include war.