Global trends and military operations

For Norway, it is first and foremost changes in our strategic environment that determine the role and relevance of the armed forces. Against this backdrop, FFI runs a project that seeks to identify and analyse global trends of relevance to Norway’s defence and security policy. By adopting a 15–25 year perspective, the project enhances FFI’s support to the Ministry of Defence’s long-term planning with a longer and broader perspective than what is normally considered.

What does the future hold?

Obviously, it is impossible to predict with certainty what will happen in the future. Yet, it is both possible and necessary to identify current trends and alternative courses of development. There are also varying degrees of prior knowledge and probabilities that can be used to assess future threats and implications. In doing so, we can look further ahead, distinguish long-term continuities from short-term changes and think outside the box on less likely, but potentially decisive developments.

One of the main findings in FFI’s latest foresight study (Global trends towards 2040, from 2019) was that there are several trends pointing towards greater uncertainty surrounding allied support to Norway in future crises. This is occurring at the same time as the threshold against the use of military force against small states may be decreasing. In addition, the project has studied the future character of Norwegian military operations, such as the development of hybrid warfare and the opportunities that lie within closer Nordic defensive cooperation.

Can we predict security policy developments?

In parallel, we also research what we can actually predict about our future strategic environment. From 2017 to 2020, FFI organised one of the world’s largest tournaments to examine how well we can forecast specific questions months and years into the future. The results showed that some individuals are able to forecast such events far better than most others, and significantly further into the future than previously assumed.

In the autumn of 2026, FFI will launch a new forecasting tournament.

Can mapping and forecasting be combined?

The new tournament is part of a new method for strategic foresight and forecasting in security policy, where the aim is to provide a better basis for decision-making by exploring not only what may happen, but also what is most likely.

The method is now being applied in a range of upcoming analyses, including the development of FFI's next foresight study, Global Trends Towards 2050, which is scheduled for publication in 2027.