The Defence Analysis 2022

FFI’s project «Strategic defence analyses» was established January 1, 2021. The Norwegian Ministry of Defence is the client, and the Chief of Defence is the defence sector’s main repre-sentative. The project’s main product is an annual analysis that gives the defence sector’s leaders a better appreciation on its strategic development. «Forsvarsanalysen 2022» (the Defence Analysis 2022) is the first edition. We evaluate the development of important trends and preconditions, give an updated picture of the development path of the Armed Forces, and evaluate how to improve and renew the long-term plan. The analysis that this report is based upon, was finalized December 22, 2021. Consequently, we have not analysed the consequen-ces from Russia’s massive attack on Ukraine which started on February 24, 2022. Intensified global competition, fragmentation of the Western security community, compounded threats, climatic challenges, a macro economy characterized by an aging population, and accel-erating technological development will affect the Armed Forces’ tasks, structure and economy. FFI’s scenario based analysis shows that the Armed Forces have shortcomings in surveillance, communication, air defence, preparedness, and endurance. Furthermore, there are challenges with increasing personnel shortages and in civilian logistics chains. In short: There is not – nor will be – a balance between tasks and force structure given the current long-term plan. FFI’s cost analysis shows that there is a balance between the force structure and the economy, but the balance is fragile. The estimates are based upon strong preconditions considering future budgets, exchange rates, the level of materiel and operating costs, and efficiency gains. The risk is skewed, and an unbalanced outcome is considered very likely. A situation characterized by high external uncertainty and low internal flexibility makes the start-ing point for the strategic development demanding. The overarching goals for the Armed Forces are: Be a relevant instrument for the state in both peace and war, and maintain preparedness for challenges towards Norwegian security in the short and long run. Based on comprehensive assessments, we recommend that the Norwegian Armed Forces should: • put more attention to the challenges in the lower parts of the conflict spectrum, so that this does not turn into a “blind spot” in the ability to maintain Norwegian security, and • explore new concepts, and clarify the distinction between those who are responsible for its operational capability today, and those who shall design it for the future. The report outlines a number of measures to enhance the operational capability. However, new measures must be financed. In addition, we point out the need to ensure access to personnel and competencies, exploit the Total Defence to enhance the society’s resilience, enhance the Armed Forces’ ability to collaborate across organizational boundaries, to develop response options under the threshold for armed conflict, to embrace technological opportunities, and to include sustainability as a central principle when planning and managing the sector.