Fremtidens internasjonale operasjoner

This report presents six new international mission types and corresponding operational requirements for the future Norwegian land forces. The purpose is to strengthen the basis for Norwegian long term defence planning, and to stimulate the debate on what role a small state like Norway can and should play in future international military operations. The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment’s (FFI) support to the Norwegian Defence Forces’ long term planning is based on a continuous analysis of international trends and developments that affect Norwegian security. These trends and developments are described in socalled mission types. The mission types are to be seen as categories that share essential common traits, which should, therefore, be seen in conjunction. The mission types, and the concrete mission scenarios that are developed within each of them, form the basis for analyses of different defence structures’ performance, and, in turn, the Norwegian Defence Forces’ capacity to carry out specific mission tasks. A number of mission types and scenarios have been developed to cater to national needs. Yet when it comes to international operations, Norway has so far only assessed national contributions to various mission types developed by NATO. These mission types are largely based on experiences from similar operations in the past. Yet several trends point towards different types of operations in the future. Norwegian Defence Forces should also be prepared to take part in UN and EU operations. This will involve different settings and challenges than the ones for which we are planning today. The six mission types presented in the report are: (1) limited duration high intensity operation, (2) limited COIN operation, (3) military security sector reform, (4) operation in a transnational conflict, (5) megacity operation, and (6) littoral land operation. A key objective of the report has also been to come up with a set of generic parameters for analyzing the operational requirements for Norwegian Land Forces in future international operations, insofar as these requirements will differ somewhat from the national requirements. The four parameters, which are discussed under each mission type, are: (I) conflict intensity, (II) consent, (III) operational environment, and (IV) relative force composition and strength. The report shows that future international operations will require ever more specialized capabilities, including officers trained for SSR tasks, flexible units trained for urban operations, cultural skills, intelligence, etc. This may imply that the potential for overlap between national and expeditionary capabilities grows smaller, and that the Norwegian objective of having one structure cater to both national and international needs, in turn, is undermined.