Improving Defense Projects in Challenging Times

The Norwegian defense sector has received increased attention in light of the shifting geopolitical and security environment, as well as being subject to environmental regulations. Therefore, investments in new defense projects are at a record high. At the same time, research on defense projects remains a relatively small part of the empirical literature and the broader international knowledge base on project management. The starting point for this PhD thesis is the need for a more robust and comprehensive empirical foundation to support the improvement defense projects in challenging times.
In international project research, there is a clear trend toward incorporating themes that go beyond the traditional parameters of cost, time, and quality. In addition to delivering on budget and schedule and producing intended outputs, projects are increasingly expected to deliver benefits to relevant stakeholders in a sustainable manner. This thesis aims to reflect such a holistic approach by applying the concept of “effectiveness” in the context of defense projects. The research takes a broad and pragmatic perspective, intending to contribute relevant theoretical insights and practical knowledge.
The first two research questions of this thesis were worded broadly and exploratively to allow for a thorough investigation of the topic, making it possible to discover patterns and insights that might not appear with more focused questions. In contrast, the third research question is more precisely formulated, allowing this thesis to make a more specific contribution to both theoretical understanding and practical applications in defense projects.
• Research Question 1: What are the characteristics and main challenges in defense projects?
• Research Question 2: How can the effectiveness of defense projects be improved to ensure operational effects within the military context?
• Research Question 3: To ensure continuous development and improvement, what key areas are critical for managing defense projects?
The thesis comprises seven individual publications, each addressing specific issues related to defense projects from distinct perspectives. All publications are based on original empirical datasets. With a pragmatic view on research, I have applied a variety of methods, including large-scale quantitative data analysis, case studies, qualitative studies, and syntheses of earlier empirical work. The analytical approaches range from formal hypothesis testing using statistical methods and regression analysis to qualitative coding of interview data.
The first research question is mainly addressed through findings in Publications 1–4:
The findings on defense project characteristics show good cost performance in the implementation phase of defense projects, especially when compared with results from international literature on projects in general, as well as on defense projects specifically. There are also new opportunities arising from new dimensions in defense project management, such as benefits management and sustainability. If sustainability is perceived as an additional cost that could compromise operational capacity, stakeholders may attempt to avoid it. At the same time, agents perceive sustainability as an opportunity and a driver for innovation in projects. For example, alternative fuel solutions can enhance sustainability and create positive effects beyond traditional project outcomes.
Regarding challenges, the measurement and assessment of benefits in defense projects are challenging. The measurement of benefit—particularly client benefit delivered to the Armed Forces— is reported at a tactical level by project managers. At the strategic level, benefits such as peace and security are intangible and difficult to quantify, which adds complexity in defense projects. The results in this thesis indicate that defense projects, in line with international literature, lack robust processes and practices during the project implementation phase for realizing strategic benefits. The military context can impact the effectiveness of defense projects. Defense projects often operate as “closed” systems due to security constraints. This can enable the development of subject matter expertise, but also tendencies to “gold-plate” equipment. In addition, the presence of professional military personnel with strong branch affiliations (Land, Sea, Air) may create incentives to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits.
The second research question is mainly addressed through findings in Publications 5–7:
In answer to this research question, the results point to several areas to improve effectiveness through project management practices in the military context. To ensure realistic cost estimates in the front-end phase, interpersonal aspects and the organization of the estimation process are crucial. This is particularly relevant in defense projects, where there is often a tendency to “reinvent the wheel,” due to limited access to historical data and available expertise. Regarding cost–benefit analysis (CBA), Publication 5 recommends using top-down approaches to identify uncertainty and complexity, which is especially relevant in the military context. Strong branch affiliation and subject matter experts tied to specific weapon systems can reinforce this issue. This dynamic often results in predefined solutions—such as replacing an old tank with a new one—instead of exploring alternatives like drones. As a consequence, opportunities to explore the full range of possible solutions in the early cost estimation phase may be missed.
A second theme to improve defense projects is the implementation of a holistic view. For the newer themes addressed in Publications 6 – Sustainability in Defense Projects and 7 – Benefits Management Practices in IT Projects, findings point to a lack of clear responsibility and guidelines for project personnel to incorporate these elements. In the front-end phase, improvements involve allocating sufficient time to explore conceptual alternatives, conducting cost estimations, and preserving historical data. Furthermore, the findings in Publication 6 emphasize that it is essential for the governing level to ensure that project personnel are adequately equipped to integrate sustainability into project processes. Together, the research on sustainability and benefits management illustrates the current position of the defense sector: at the beginning of a transformation, but still primarily focused on traditional project management parameters.
The third research question is addressed through a synthesis of the results from the two previous research questions, and the following two key areas emerge as critical for the management of defense projects:
1. Governance as a Key Aspect in Challenging Times By focusing on governance, the Ministry of Defense can help ensure that projects are aligned with strategic goals and that they incorporate a broader perspective through benefit management and sustainability. This contributes to the delivery of long-term benefits and strategic outcomes.
2. Organizational Measures for Managing Projects in the Military Context In a military context characterized by frequent personnel rotation, limited access to historical data, and rapid technological development, it is crucial to establish a robust organization for storing and transferring knowledge between involved actors and agencies. This ensures continuity despite personnel changes and reduces the risk of losing project information, in addition to enabling learning through evaluation.
To summarize, this thesis expands project management theory by incorporating themes like stakeholders, sustainability, benefit management, and organizational characteristics, with a focus on defense projects. The findings advocate agile software development in military contexts, showing improved client benefits and schedule adherence, and recommends agile methods for military IT projects. The research also nuances cost performance understanding by illustrating the coexistence of cost overruns and underruns and emphasizes the critical role of governance and project organization to improve defense projects.
Although the findings presented in this thesis represent a small step forward in building the knowledge base on defense projects, there remain many areas and topics that require further exploration. Moreover, most of the empirical data used in this research are based on a limited sample and/or collected solely from the Norwegian defense sector. Caution should therefore be exercised when attempting to generalize the findings beyond this specific context.
I hope this work will contribute to further learning and knowledge development related to projects in the defense sector, which accounts for a substantial share of public spending and plays a vital role in ensuring national security.